Threat Tiers

Sub-state Actor

Details

Description
A sub-state actor is an organised armed group operating within or across state borders that exercises meaningful coercive power without holding sovereign status, ranging from militias, paramilitaries, and proxy forces to large armed political movements and quasi-state administrations. Such actors often blur the line between insurgency and conventional force, frequently receive external state sponsorship, and may exercise de facto control over populations and territory. RAND research on proxy warfare and gray-zone competition treats sub-state actors as an enduring feature of strategic competition, and the 2022 National Defense Strategy recognises their role as instruments of state and non-state adversaries.
Tier Level
4
Typical Capabilities
Battalion- to brigade-equivalent armed formations with mixed conventional and irregular doctrine, capable of holding terrain and conducting sustained operations against weaker state forces. Equipment typically combines older-generation conventional weapons such as light armour, artillery, and short-range air defences with significant inventories of guided rockets and missiles, anti-tank systems, unmanned aerial systems, and cyber and information capabilities, frequently transferred or sustained by a state sponsor. Command-and-control is more structured than that of a pure insurgency and may include rudimentary joint planning, while logistics, training, and intelligence often depend heavily on sponsor support.

Sources