Command and Doctrine

Threat Tiers

Insurgent / Irregular An insurgent or irregular adversary is a non-state armed movement that pursues political, ideological, or territorial objectives through guerrilla warfare, terrorism, subversion, and protracted low-intensity conflict rather than conventional state-on-state combat. Such actors typically lack the legal status, territorial control, or institutional depth of a sovereign state and rely on popular support, sanctuary, illicit financing, and asymmetric tactics. The 2022 National Defense Strategy treats persistent threats from violent extremist organisations and other irregular adversaries alongside its principal focus on strategic competition with major powers.
Near-Peer A near-peer adversary is a major state competitor that approaches but does not fully match the capabilities of the leading global power across the full range of military, technological, and economic instruments. The 2022 National Defense Strategy characterises this category through its identification of acute and persistent challenges from major powers pursuing revisionist aims, and RAND research has used the near-peer label to distinguish capable major-power adversaries from a true global peer. Near-peer competitors can credibly contest regional theatres and selected warfighting domains even where they cannot sustain symmetric global competition.
Peer A peer adversary is a state competitor whose military, technological, industrial, and economic capacity approximates that of the leading global power across all warfighting domains and at global scale. The 2022 National Defense Strategy frames the highest tier of strategic competition in terms of a pacing challenge from a major power with the capability and will to reshape the international order, and the foundational RAND framework on peer competitors describes the emergence of such an actor as among the most consequential long-term defence planning challenges. Peer status implies the ability to contest, deny, or shape outcomes in any theatre of significance.
Regional Power A regional power is a sovereign state whose military capabilities are sufficient to dominate, contest, or significantly disrupt outcomes within its immediate region but do not approach the global reach of a peer or near-peer competitor. The 2022 National Defense Strategy explicitly treats persistent threats from certain regional state actors alongside the broader competition with major powers, and RAND analyses use the regional-power label to describe states capable of credible regional aggression or coercion without global power-projection capacity.
Sub-state Actor A sub-state actor is an organised armed group operating within or across state borders that exercises meaningful coercive power without holding sovereign status, ranging from militias, paramilitaries, and proxy forces to large armed political movements and quasi-state administrations. Such actors often blur the line between insurgency and conventional force, frequently receive external state sponsorship, and may exercise de facto control over populations and territory. RAND research on proxy warfare and gray-zone competition treats sub-state actors as an enduring feature of strategic competition, and the 2022 National Defense Strategy recognises their role as instruments of state and non-state adversaries.